In my post about how Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE) and Cairngorm Mountain Scotland Ltd (CMSL) have “all the gear, no idea” (see here), I mentioned that as far as I know there is only one person in Scotland with the necessary qualifications to operate a ski resort. I then decided to have a look at the qualifications of the SE Group team who had produced a report on the future of snowsports at Cairn Gorm in 2018 (see here), followed by an addendum (see here) in July 2019 after the funicular was declared unsafe for an unspecified time.   I needn’t have bothered as their experience, some of which can be seen in the screenshot below, is impeccable:

Sixty four years involvement in the snow sports business, 1958-2022, including helping plan for two winter Olympics, compared to four years for the current CEO of Cairngorm Mountain Scotland Ltd.

BUT,  I also came across this (see here):

“It takes money to make money, but it takes smart planning to spend it well.”

Oh how true and how unlike how snowsports at Cairn Gorm are being managed.  With a new winter season here, the overall impression being given out by HIE and CM(S)L is the complete opposite. A completely disjointed and therefore unsustainable approach to progress the snow sports business. Their pre-occupation is in getting the funicular up and running again with apparently no thought of any of the improvements in the SE Group reports that were bought and paid for, again by the taxpayer, at a cost in the region of £120k.

The following is an extract from the addendum written in the light of the funicular breakdown:-

“The revised concept continues to focus on the investments with the greatest potential impact and creating a more desirable—and competitive—experience for visitors. This will facilitate greater revenues, through the increase in visits.

All the proposed upgrades at Cairngorm are designed to work together as part of a new and sustainable business model for the ski area. Infrastructure improvements are expected to drive additional skier visits. The installation of a snowmaking system will create a more consistent snowpack and improve the quality of the skiing and riding surfaces. Reliable snow conditions, along with a modern aerial lift to service the ski terrain will encourage skiers to plan trips to Cairngorm and visit more frequently throughout the season”

Our projections estimate the upgrades will increase annual winter visits to 130,000 consistently, with higher numbers during a peak year. This increase in visits is expected to increase overall revenues. At the same time, labour and other operating expenses are expected to decrease as a result of the new lift scheme and other improvements.”

I suspect the figure of 130,000 skier days (s.d.), (used in est.1 below) is over-optimistic. Since 2004 there are only three years in which the skier days exceeded 100,000:

(1) 2010….145,000,

(2) 2011….121,000, and,

(3) 2013….113,000.

In fact the average skier days over the 15 year period 2004 – 2018 was 72,076 p.a. However, that was with the funicular rather than  modern uplift and a lot better than the figures HIE and CM(S)L are now promoting, 30,000 (see est. 2)!

But let’s compare the maximum ticket revenue from those two estimated figures using CM(S)L’s day ticket price of £38.00 for this season:-

(Est. 1) 130,000 s.d. x £38 = £4,940,000,

(Est. 2)  30,000 s.d. x £38 = £ 1,140,000.

And now some real figures for actual skier days and potential income at that same £38 for a day ticket :-

(1) 2004 – 2008 5 year ave.  53.928 s.d. x £38.00 = £1,049,264

(2) 2009 – 2013       “           102,043 s.d. x £38.00 = £3,877634, &,

(3) 2014 – 2018       “            60,258 s.d. x £38.00 = £2,109,030.

Average p.a over 15 years   72,076 s.d. x £38.00 = £2,738,888.

I have not taken into consideration the number of discounted sales as I don’t have those figures so the income figures will therefore be more than the actual figures, BUT, what it does show is quite different to HIE’s Financial Business (see here)! Also presumably CM(S)L will be using the actual figures when working out the business plan for the 2023/2024 season!

The following screenshot is for an employment opportunity for a funicular attendant from the CM(S)L website of 03/11/2022.

It would appear from the job advert that either there is a severe breakdown in communication between HIE and CM(S)L in their forecast of skier days for the coming seasons or CM(S)L is deliberately over-stating the skier days trying to attract staff especially when the skier day numbers were only over 120,000 for two seasons from 2004 to the present?

Conclusion

It has been said before that HIE were deliberately understating the skier day forecast in their Financial Business Case, i.e. 30,000, so that if that figure was exceeded, which by the 15 year average it almost certainly will, they could use that to claim  the business is more successful than they predicted, all down to the funicular repairs!

The fact is, however, that in NOT following the SE Group’s recommendations there will be far fewer visitors and far fewer jobs on Speyside than there might have been.  It says something that Susan Smith, with such limited experience of snowsports, appears to have effectively binned a report produce by people with so much accumulated expertise.

The Scottish Government needs to bring HIE, an organisation giving the appearance of being totally out of control, to heel before millions of more pounds of public money is wasted on the unsustainable, uneconomic business that is the Cairn Gorm ski resort.

“It takes money to make money, but it takes smart planning to spend it well”.